Predictive Modelling Tools

Meat & Livestock Australia, together with the Food Safety Centre, has developed two predictive modelling tools to assist processing sites with decision making.

The tools available are;

• E.coli inactivation in fermented meats model

This model is the outcome from an MLA sponsored study to develop a model for the inactivation rate of E.coli. Analysis of a collation of data, both published and generated specifically for the study from experiments, including challenge studies. The data described the fate of E.coli in UCFM products or analogous environments in which low water activity or pH, or both, lead to the organism's inactivation.

Food safety authorities recommend that UCFM manufacturers intending to use the mmodel read the report "Predicting E.coli inactivation in uncooked comminuted fermented meat products." The information in this report will assist manufacturers understand the scientific basis for the model.

The paper and predictive model are available for download from the Food Safety Centre.

• Refrigeration index calculator

The Refrigeration Index (RI) is an index for the log growth of E.coli. It predicts the expected growth of E.coli on meat from temperature and other data. The model has values for pH, water activity and lactate concentration which in addition to temperature, all affect the growth rate of E.coli. The current RI model allows for the user to enter data on temperatures of the product over time. The other parameters are set by choosing the type of product.

It is important to note that the RI, as an indication of the effectiveness of refrigeration, is NOT a prediction of the number of E.coli in the product.

The refrigeration index calculator and accompanying reports and instructions are available for download from the Food Safety Centre.